Posts Tagged ‘Fairfax’

Hints of Red in Deep Blue Fairfax

February 5, 2009 1 comment

Well, the verdict is in, and Pat Herrity fell just short in Fairfax in his bid to become Fairfax County’s new chairman. The margin was heartbreakingly close–at 1.1%, it was just outside of the area for a recount (which as discussed before doesn’t mean much in Virginia, but still). Just as he did a few weeks ago with the result in the 46th, US News and World Report’s Michael Barone sees good signs for the GOP in the outcome:

Barack Obama carried Fairfax County, Va., 60 percent to 39 percent . In a special election yesterday for chairman of the County Board of Supervisors to replace Gerald Connolly, who was elected to Congress in November, Democrat Sharon Bulova beat Republican Pat Herrity by only 51 percent to 49 percent. Turnout was 107,713, far below the 516,254 last November. Another example of how Democratic turnout seems to drop off more than Republican turnout in special elections.

A few observations below the fold. 

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Fairfax Special Election Live-blogging…..

February 3, 2009 Leave a comment

…..will NOT be found here. Instead, in a historic first for any blogger, I am directing traffic AWAY from here. Look, asking me for analysis of Farifax County Results is like asking me to anchor Turkmenistani returns. I’ll have plenty to say afterwards, but there are people on the ground who are far, far more in touch with the individual precincts and will be able to tell you how the outcome is leaning. 

On the right, Virginia Virtucon and Too Conservative

On the left but still hating Gerry Connolly, Not Larry Sabato.

The last thing I have to say before the results come in:


Direct Mail Only Works With Good Data

January 30, 2009 Leave a comment

Patrick Ruffinni makes an interesting point about the values of primaries over conventions in terms of identifying voters. He does this in the context of next Tuesday’s special election for Fairfax’s Board Chairman. 

I’ll be out of town, so I requested an absentee ballot, which came in the mail yesterday. That same day, I got a hand addressed piece of AB Chase mail from the Fairfax County Democrats, along with one anti-Herrity mailer from the DPV and mail from a third party candidate running on a platform of low taxes.


What’s wrong with this picture? Two mail pieces from Democrats, one a hand-addressed AB chase piece. One from an independent low-tax candidate, who for all I know, could be a Republican (we don’t have party listed on our ballots for county offices — causing confusion if you don’t have a sample ballot from your county committee).

Why do I get more Democratic mail than Republican mail? On a couple of occasions, I have availed myself of the opportunity to help select the Democratic nominee when we had no contested primary. But I have also voted in Republican primaries, including the extremely low-turnout VA-8 primary last year.

The bottom line: There is no reason that as a past primary voter who is a supervoter in both primaries and generals should not be getting Republican mail. I also got very little GOTV mail from Republicans in the general election last year — though I did get robocalls from John McCain in the primary.

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Showdown in Fairfax

January 28, 2009 Leave a comment

The upcoming special election for Board Chair in Fairfax is quickly becoming the first test of the grassroots and messaging ability of the two parties headed into this fall’s epic gubernatorial campaign. From the WaPo:

In effort to lay the groundwork for his own campaign this fall, Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell (R) has dispatched paid canvassers and volunteers to help Herrity. By the end of the weekend, McDonnell’s staff estimates they will have knocked on more than 15,000 doors. McDonnell plans to campaign with Herrity on Monday.

Not to be outdone, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe is turning his Mclean headquarters into a daily phone banking center in support of Bulova. While much of the work will be done by volunteers, McAuliffe plans to man the phones on Saturday.

McAuliffe’s rivals for the nomination, Sen. R. Creigh Deeds (Bath) and former delegate Brian Moran, are also dispatching resources to Fairfax in support of Bulova.

Deeds cut a robo-call for Bulova. Deeds also plans to dispatch volunteers from Charlottesville to Fairfax this weekend.

Moran’s political assistant, Chris Collins, has been embedded in the Bulova campaign. Moran has also been organizing Democratic volunteers from Arlington and Alexandria to send to Fairfax to work for Bulova.

Moran’s political director sets the stakes very high for both sides:

“A victory by a conservative Republican in this jurisdiction of more than one million would be a setback for us, just as the new administration and Congress are getting started,” Dominic Gabello, Moran’s political director wrote in an email to supporters. “This election will set the tone for the 2009 elections.”

He’s right. If a conservative Republican can win on fiscal issues in deep blue Fairfax, we may have a shot this fall afterwards.