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Posts Tagged ‘NOVA’

Hints of Red in Deep Blue Fairfax

February 5, 2009 1 comment

Well, the verdict is in, and Pat Herrity fell just short in Fairfax in his bid to become Fairfax County’s new chairman. The margin was heartbreakingly close–at 1.1%, it was just outside of the area for a recount (which as discussed before doesn’t mean much in Virginia, but still). Just as he did a few weeks ago with the result in the 46th, US News and World Report’s Michael Barone sees good signs for the GOP in the outcome:

Barack Obama carried Fairfax County, Va., 60 percent to 39 percent . In a special election yesterday for chairman of the County Board of Supervisors to replace Gerald Connolly, who was elected to Congress in November, Democrat Sharon Bulova beat Republican Pat Herrity by only 51 percent to 49 percent. Turnout was 107,713, far below the 516,254 last November. Another example of how Democratic turnout seems to drop off more than Republican turnout in special elections.

A few observations below the fold. 

Read more…

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Fairfax Special Election Live-blogging…..

February 3, 2009 Leave a comment

…..will NOT be found here. Instead, in a historic first for any blogger, I am directing traffic AWAY from here. Look, asking me for analysis of Farifax County Results is like asking me to anchor Turkmenistani returns. I’ll have plenty to say afterwards, but there are people on the ground who are far, far more in touch with the individual precincts and will be able to tell you how the outcome is leaning. 

On the right, Virginia Virtucon and Too Conservative

On the left but still hating Gerry Connolly, Not Larry Sabato.

The last thing I have to say before the results come in:

GO PAT GO!

Showdown in Fairfax

January 28, 2009 Leave a comment

The upcoming special election for Board Chair in Fairfax is quickly becoming the first test of the grassroots and messaging ability of the two parties headed into this fall’s epic gubernatorial campaign. From the WaPo:

In effort to lay the groundwork for his own campaign this fall, Attorney General Robert F. McDonnell (R) has dispatched paid canvassers and volunteers to help Herrity. By the end of the weekend, McDonnell’s staff estimates they will have knocked on more than 15,000 doors. McDonnell plans to campaign with Herrity on Monday.

Not to be outdone, Democratic gubernatorial candidate Terry McAuliffe is turning his Mclean headquarters into a daily phone banking center in support of Bulova. While much of the work will be done by volunteers, McAuliffe plans to man the phones on Saturday.

McAuliffe’s rivals for the nomination, Sen. R. Creigh Deeds (Bath) and former delegate Brian Moran, are also dispatching resources to Fairfax in support of Bulova.

Deeds cut a robo-call for Bulova. Deeds also plans to dispatch volunteers from Charlottesville to Fairfax this weekend.

Moran’s political assistant, Chris Collins, has been embedded in the Bulova campaign. Moran has also been organizing Democratic volunteers from Arlington and Alexandria to send to Fairfax to work for Bulova.

Moran’s political director sets the stakes very high for both sides:

“A victory by a conservative Republican in this jurisdiction of more than one million would be a setback for us, just as the new administration and Congress are getting started,” Dominic Gabello, Moran’s political director wrote in an email to supporters. “This election will set the tone for the 2009 elections.”

He’s right. If a conservative Republican can win on fiscal issues in deep blue Fairfax, we may have a shot this fall afterwards.

NOVA to face electoral attention again

January 22, 2009 Leave a comment

For the past week the House of Delegates has been debating and voting not to recognize the results in the 46th District special election, where newcomer Republican Joe Murray nearly lost Brian Moran’s old seat in deep blue Alexandria by just 16 votes. Although the outcome is not expected to change, it has energized activists on both sides to win in the next upcoming special election in NOVA: the fight to replace newly minted Congressman Gerry Connolly as Chairman of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors. From the WaPo:

Vice Chairman Sharon S. Bulova (D-Braddock) has promised to show fiscal restraint while also continuing the leadership of former chairman Gerald E. Connolly, who won a seat in Congress in November after years expanding county schools, housing programs and environmental protections. Supervisor Pat S. Herrity (R-Springfield) is campaigning to cut wasteful spending and keep taxes down.

Low turnout projections have prompted some to predict that this election could go either way, rendering blue Fairfax, home of one in seven Virginians, an unexpected battleground. If Republicans win, they will head toward fall elections for governor and the General Assembly with an unexpected rallying cry. If Democrats win, they retain the momentum that they have built in recent elections.

Either way, the chairman’s race is likely to be less a referendum on ideas than a reflection of who can spend more money and coax more voters to the polls.

The election also looks like it might be a major test of a new tack for the Republican brand in Northern Virginia:

Bulova, 61, is a close ally of Connolly’s and a natural heir for voters who approved of his leadership. A 21-year veteran of the board, she has been part of an 8-to-2 Democratic majority that has made its top priority the protection or expansion of some government programs. This majority has been rewarded, according to recent polls and electoral results, with deep satisfaction among county residents. Bulova’s central campaign message is to assure voters that she will continue the county on its same course.

“Fairfax is a great place to live, to raise our families, to work, to grow older comfortably,” she said at a candidate debate last week hosted by the Fairfax County Chamber of Commerce. “I want to make sure we continue in that positive direction.”

The race is complicated for her, however, by the strength and popularity of Herrity, whose successful career as a corporate accountant is drawing him support from the county’s well-organized business community. Herrity, 48, also benefits from sharing a surname with his late father, John F. “Jack” Herrity, who was board chairman for 12 years a generation ago and is the namesake of a major highway and government building in the heart of Fairfax.

With promises to trim programs and keep taxes flat, Herrity, who just completed his first year on the board, is also assuming that the soured economy and fallen property values have prompted a change of heart among voters about county spending. His overall message, in fact, rests on a gamble that residents want change.

Time will tell if Republicans in Northern Virginia will be able to win again by maintaining strict message (not to mention governing) discipline by focusing on bread and butter fiscal policy issues without betraying conservative values. But after the drubbing in November, it’s worth a shot.

The Elephant Stays in the Picture

January 15, 2009 1 comment

Much ink (and even more bytes) has been used to toll the death bell for Republicans in Northern Virginia. Indeed, the picture looks relatively grim if you just compare results from 2004 to 2008. In the 8th District, which consists mostly of the inner beltway around Arlington, Alexandria and Fairfax the top of the ticket went from 35.16% to 29.65% (-5.5%). Not too surprising given the level of Obamamania in and around Washington, plus those cities have long been a weak point for Republicans. Further west, though, the picture gets even bleaker: in the 11th, which contains Fairfax and Prince William, the GOP went from 49.92% to 42.06% (-7%). In the 10th, which contains parts of Fairfax, Loudoun, and the Republican strongholds of Frederick and Warren Counties, the damage the worst, sliding from 55.10% to 46.06% (-9%). With voter turnout up by about 4% across all of the districts, it’s clear that Democrats were extremely effective in turning out their message and taking advantage of voter disgust with Republican leadership. By any quantitative measure, the future looks bleak for NOVA Republicans. 

However, there are some surprising trends appearing in northern Virginia. Read more…